Introduction

Now that interior chain and retail icon CASA has filed for bankruptcy, other brands are eyeing the freed-up customers and retail spaces. Direct competitors in the interior design sector will naturally absorb part of the sales, while other large chains see opportunities in the vacated locations. Which retailers stand to gain the most from the closures? Where will CASA’s customers go shopping next? And who will move into the now-available commercial properties? The answer lies in a detailed geomarketing analysis of former interior retailer's locations.

RetailSonar analyzes CASA’s customers and store locations

For years, Ghent-based data company RetailSonar has been supporting retail chains in over 15 countries with optimizing their store networks. This is done through a predictive model that forecasts revenue within the network with 90% accuracy for new store openings and closings. Based on this expertise, RetailSonar now shares its market insights on where CASA customers are expected to shop next. Additionally, RetailSonar evaluates CASA’s locations based on their commercial potential using foot traffic and car traffic data.

Dieter Debels on CASA

"CASA’s bankruptcy is a big blow for many employees and consumers, but also a unique opportunity for the Belgian retail landscape," says Dieter Debels, CEO of RetailSonar. "When a well-established name disappears and 63 stores suddenly become available, it causes many companies to re-evaluate their store networks. Which locations are interesting to acquire and what new customers can be attracted? These are exactly the strategic questions we help answer as the European market leader."

What is the impact of CASA’s closures on the home goods retail market?

With CASA closing its stores, around €40 million in annual revenue is disappearing. But how much of that will flow to other Belgian retailers? It’s estimated that 80% of this revenue will be redistributed partly to direct rivals, but also to other stores and online shopping platforms.

RetailSonar predicts that of the turnover picked up by other chains, IKEA will be the biggest winner in absolute terms, potentially gaining an additional €3.65 million in revenue. Jysk, Action, Leen Bakker, and Trafic are also expected to benefit. These are generally chains with stores located near former CASA locations and with similar product offerings and customer profiles. IKEA is the exception here, with a broader reach via its eight Belgian destination stores.

The table below shows the five companies with the highest estimated redistributed turnover from the bankruptcy. These figures are achievable with targeted marketing in the right regions of Belgium:

Which regions do CASA customers live in?

Beyond the market-level redistribution, it’s also possible to predict on a store-by-store basis where revenue will flow. To ensure stores with high redistribution potential can benefit and attract former CASA customers, targeted local marketing is key in areas where CASA held a strong market share.

The map below shows where CASA had the largest market share—and thus where the most customers will need to find a new destination. Market share is fairly evenly split between Flanders and Wallonia, although there are significant regional differences.

Which CASA store locations are the most attractive?

Over the years, CASA has secured many appealing retail locations across the country. Some are in shopping areas, while others are in retail clusters on the outskirts of cities. If we look at retail clusters with high vehicle traffic near CASA stores, the following locations clearly stand out:

Location Analysis: Top 10 CASA locations ranked by nearby vehicle traffic

Highlighted store location: Boomsesteenweg 66, Aartselaar

This location along the A12 in Aartselaar, near the Schelle border, has the highest vehicle traffic of all CASA locations, with a strong score of 478,000 cars per week. With 1,170 m² of retail space and ample parking, this is prime retail real estate on one of the country’s most well-known (and wanted) road retail zones. Nearby, you’ll find anchor stores like Gamma and Maxi Zoo. A bit further along the A12, there are additional stores such as Action, Hema, and Decathlon.

When analyzing CASA locations based on pedestrian flows (for city centers) or visitor numbers (for shopping centers), the following 10 stores clearly stand out.

Location Analysis: Top 10 CASA locations ranked by pedestrian counts

Highlighted store location: Meirbrug 2, Antwerp

This CASA store has the highest pedestrian traffic of all CASA stores, located on the Meir, Flanders’ busiest shopping street [NL]. An impressive 135,000 shoppers pass by the store each week, and with 432 m² of retail space, it’s an attractive location for many brands. The surrounding area is packed with fashion retailers and fast-serving restaurants typical of shopping zones. Direct competitors like Hema, Action, and Zara Home are also just a short walk away.

Conclusion

Whether or not a store location is truly worth acquiring depends on various factors unique to each retailer, such as the proximity to existing stores, local competition, estimated cross-visits with nearby stores, and rental costs. That’s why RetailSonar analyses all of these elements to accurately predict the true revenue potential of a given location.